{"id":2601,"date":"2022-07-01T08:54:56","date_gmt":"2022-07-01T08:54:56","guid":{"rendered":"https://uk20201.com/blog\/?p=2601"},"modified":"2022-07-01T08:54:57","modified_gmt":"2022-07-01T08:54:57","slug":"bitcoin-bottom-speculation-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https://uk20201.com/blog\/en\/%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3\/ex\/2601\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin bottom speculation continues<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Bears, bulls and non-anthropomorphised crypto-market participants continue to speculate on the Bitcoin bottom. Metrics say yes\u2026 macro says nah, while technical analysis probably has a bet each way.One thing that is certainly consistent in crypto right now, though, is the market-sentiment reading \u2013 the Fear & Greed Index, which seems permanently switched to a forehead-dabbing \u201cextreme fear\u201d setting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In search of a Bitcoin bottom<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But as for that bottom talk, the excellent US on-chain analytics firm Glassnode is back at it with more searing insights. While caveating: \u201cwithin the current macroeconomic framework, all models and historical precedents are likely to be put to the test\u201d, its analyst \u201cCheckmate\u201d noted:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 Those who bought BTC in 2020 and 2021 have been largely responsible for all the recent selling (suggesting longer-term hodlers are still doing their thing \u2013 hodling).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 \u201cAlmost all macro indicators for Bitcoin, ranging from technical to on-chain, are at all-time lows, coincident with bear-market floor formation in previous cycles.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2022 \u201cBased on the current positioning of Bitcoin prices relative to historical floor models, the market is already at an extremely improbable level, with only 0.2% of trading days being in similar circumstances.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as you can see from the Glassnode chart below<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

it certainly\u00a0looks<\/em>\u00a0very close to being a Bitcoin bottom when compared with previous bear-market cycles.In fact, with BTC currently closing and trading under the 200-week moving average for the first time, it would appear to be\u00a0oversold<\/em>\u00a0compared with the previous lows.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Bitcoin\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Bitcoin believers may well be happy to keep <\/strong>dollar-cost averaging<\/strong><\/a> at these levels<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The extra cautious, or maximum-opportunity hunters, however, might be waiting for something lower.IF, for example, Bitcoin were to come down around 80% to 85% (which has some precedent based on past bear markets) from its November 2021 US$69k all-time high, then, strap in, because, we could well be looking at BTC down at US$10k-US$14k levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another, closer bottoming-out metric to consider, though, belongs to US financial technical analyst guru John Bollinger,<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Bitcoin\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

At these levels, maybe just a fraction south of US$20k, Bitcoin is \u201ctagging\u201d the bottom of his monthly timeframe BTC Bollinger Bands volatility indicator after posting a \u201cpicture perfect\u201d double-top pattern in 2021. \u201cThis would be a logical place to put in a bottom,\u201d he suggested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the macroeconomic factors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

shall we nutshell those again, too? May as well while we\u2019re here\u2026\u00a0 Crazy global inflation, 75bp Fed interest-rate hikes, Eastern European war, rising commodities, recession fears\u2026 not to mention the fact crypto is doing its best effort to implode from within.The full\u00a0crypto-contagion narrative<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0in the wake of Terra LUNA\u2019s collapse is still being weaved, with the likes of\u00a0Celsius<\/strong><\/a>, BlockFi, Voyager, Babel Finance, Coinflex,\u00a0Three Arrows Capital<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and others all reportedly having a pretty rough time of things \u2013 some more than others. Although certain\u00a0bailout vultures<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0have reportedly sharpened their beaks and are circling for some.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.TOWN\uff1ahttps:\/\/u.town\/en<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bears, bulls and non-anthropomorphised crypto-market pa […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2604,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[549],"tags":[627,415],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin bottom speculation continues - U.TOWN<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin-Bears, bulls and non-anthropomorphised crypto-market participants continue to speculate on the Bitcoin bottom.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"zh_TW\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin bottom speculation continues - U.TOWN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin-Bears, bulls and non-anthropomorphised crypto-market participants continue to speculate on the Bitcoin bottom.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/en\/\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\/ex\/2601\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"U.TOWN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-07-01T08:54:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-07-01T08:54:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/image-5.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"553\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"438\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin1\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"\u9810\u4f30\u95b1\u8b80\u6642\u9593\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 \u5206\u9418\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/en\/%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3\/ex\/2601\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/en\/%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3\/ex\/2601\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin1\",\"@id\":\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/465f9d960ffe4355dbd44ff26c85a528\"},\"headline\":\"Bitcoin bottom speculation continues\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-07-01T08:54:56+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-07-01T08:54:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/en\/%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3\/ex\/2601\/\"},\"wordCount\":490,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Bitcoin\",\"u.town\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\"],\"inLanguage\":\"zh-TW\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/en\/%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3\/ex\/2601\/\",\"url\":\"https://uk20201.com/blog\/en\/%e6%af%94%e7%89%b9%e5%b9%a3\/ex\/2601\/\",\"name\":\"Bitcoin bottom speculation continues - 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